there's kissin in the valley

 Thieving in the alley

Fighting every inch of the way
Trying to be tender
With somebody I remember
In a night that’s always brighter’n the day (Dylan)

well it's more like thieving in the VALLEY, as in Silicon Valley Bank.

2023 just went from a proceed with caution year for investing to a head for hills and take cover year.....never mind sell in may and go away, get out now if you can . If you are under 40 you can ride it out, keep reinvesting dividends and enjoy an 18 month discount on stocks...but if you are over 50 , you should consider the safe haven of Money Market and T-Bills and collect your 3.5-5% over the coming 2 years.......i won't be selling my clue chips of JPM or XOM , but i will continue to move some small fish to core , and in reality i am less than 2 years from Le Boca Vista , so i doubt i will reenter the market with most of those funds...

We are coming up on the 1 year mark since the Fed started raising rates, the impact of those rate hikes are not usually felt for 12 months....Inflation has not really retreated since the higher rates, mainly because the Govt Keeps spending, spending, spending......this summer could be a blood bath. I will be shocked if we do not see a significant hit in the commercial real estate market. The cities are unsafe and nobody wants to go back to the office....last month i had to be in the office 5 straight days......i brought lunch from home everyday and never left the building.....I stopped in Shop Rite on my way to the train and picked up 6 pints each night...gone are the days of 2 or 3 lunches a week in the bars and restaurants ( a lot of the bars do not even open until 4:00) nobody is going to the food courts or even Dunkin Donuts in the morning.

Credit Card debt may be the next big story....as more and more people see the minimum payment rise , they will eventually realize they are paying twice as much as last summer just to meet the interest.(the balances will not go down) eventually these folks will say eff it and just default.

Gas is of course going to shoot well over $100 a barrel. Nothing has been even agreed upon to increase our production. and so as China continues to open up and the full impact of sanctions on Russian oil are felt , well ; you get the idea.

Back to Silicon Valley Bank.....what happens next ?

The Govt has been spending money at a dangerous clip the past 2 years , how much more debt can they assume to bail out SVB ?  the expectation now is that the Fed is begging someone/anyone in the private banking sector to Take over SVB and guarantee all client deposits. If I am the Chairman of Chase, Citi, Wells etc ......i make Pocahontas Elizabeth Warren publicly beg for my help and take back all her mean girl comments about the banking industry.

as a Wells fargo stockholder i hope they do not lift a finger for this bailout.....the left has been attacking this bank , calling them Racists , sexist etc etc for the last 5 years......how hypocritical of them to now accept help from the Devil himself.....go ask Big Paulie Pelosi for a loan, the King of Insider Trading can surely lend a hand.

anyway....buckle up for Monday morning.....on the anniversary of the Bear Stearns collapse we could have another fallout session .

Seven days, seven more days she’ll be comin’
I’ll be waiting at the station for her to arrive
Seven more days, all I gotta do is survive