Derby Still Up for Grabs

here is one mans take below.......as for chaps like me and donzo it's off to Gallaghers to hear what the experts have to say.

So, as Abbott asked Costello, who's on first?

Approaching the last Saturday of April, according to Rick Dutrow, it's Big Brown.

"He's the fastest horse in the race," Dutrow said of the Florida Derby winner, who has started only three times going into the Kentucky Derby. "We're the horse to beat and I feel confident that we're going to win the race."

Sounds easy.

"I got Curlin beat in this race last year," said Steve Asmussen, who returns to Churchill Downs with two Derby starters and has seen Curlin establish himself in the last 12 months as the best horse on the planet. "I know how hard it is to win."

Eoin Harty has been to Churchill for the Derby several times during the days when he was Bob Baffert's assistant and Baffert ruled the world. He brings the leading West Coast 3-year-old, Colonel John, to this renewal. "In the Derby," Harty said, having experienced the sudden transformation of confidence into disbelief, "anything can happen."

Thirty years have passed since Affirmed won the last Triple Crown, but in those three decades no Kentucky Derby has come together with as little pre-race definition as the 134th. The favorite? Even that remains to be determined on May 3 by the mood of the bettors. Big Brown? Colonel John? Both have wide support. Were it not for one really bad afternoon in Lexington, Pyro would be right there.

The Derby always holds the potential to leave its audience befuddled. Usually, however, this comes in the late stages of the race itself: 50-1 Giacomo runs down 70-1 Closing Argument for a $9,814.80 exacta; the favorite, Empire Maker, fails to get past a New York-bred, Funny Cide, who pays $27.60; the Illinois Derby winner, War Emblem, 20-1, wires a field of 18; Charismatic, once offered in a claiming race with no takers, pops at $64.60 for trainer D. Wayne Lukas, rekindling the memory of Thunder Gulch, $51. Confusion is no more a stranger to the Derby than a longshot winner. But this is different. For everyone not named Dutrow, this Derby defies surprise.

The culling process that began in January, when War Pass was the early favorite and Pyro the main threat, embraces a total of 32 races run over a variety of surfaces real and invented but has served its purpose poorly. The frame is beyond crowded; it's teaming.

War Pass, injured, is no longer in the mix. Asmussen worries both that War Pass' absence will soften the pace for the deep-closing Pyro and that the Blue Grass Stakes was less than the purposeful prep he had envisioned.

"It raised some doubts I didn't have before," Asmussen said.

Almost every prep race has raised doubts and brought new faces to the mix. Monba and Cowboy Cal transformed trainer Todd Pletcher from spectator to major player after finishing 1-2 in the Blue Grass while Pyro, Visionaire, Cool Coal Man, Big Truck and others floundered at Keeneland. Synthetic surfaces in Kentucky and California have only added charcoal the grey areas. Never have so many prominent 3-year-olds run so badly in the same Derby prep as in the latest running of the Blue Grass.

What do you make of that? Or, this?

Larry Jones, who brought runner-up Hard Spun to the last Derby, has two prospects for the 134th, both fillies. It has been 20 years since a filly, Winning Colors, won the Derby -- nine years since a filly has even attempted the first leg of the Triple Crown. Eight Belles and Proud Spell are very good fillies but neither has raced beyond 1 1/16 miles. Larry Jones leans toward the conservative and a decision to run against males would suggest an unusually high regard for a filly's raw ability. Oaks? Derby?

"We don't know," his wife and assistant Cindy Jones said after both fillies worked at Keeneland over the weekend. "The decision will be made at entry time."

Keep 'em guessing.

Another ingredient in this stew: Subtle changes may mean a great deal, or nothing.

Barclay - if I could get there on Saturday morning I would - Tagg, plans to sent Tale of Ekati, winner of the Wood Memorial and his best hope for a second Derby title, to Churchill Downs almost a week before the race, which is entirely out of character. If Larry Jones' considering the prospect of running a filly or two in the Derby is a mild surprise, Tagg arriving in the teeth of the Louisville media maelstrom is almost shocking. In the past, Tagg's Derby horses have not seen the track at Churchill until Friday.

Big Brown's race in the Florida Derby stands out among the many prep races run during the winter and spring. If he fails to translate that effort to 10 furlongs run over a different surface than the one over which he has run two of his three races, almost half this field, running back to their final preps, is within a few lengths with a number of others not far behind. The Derby makes unique demands of a rider and any attempt to get a handle on this race demands an examination of the horse-jockey partnership.

Edgar Prado, considered an array of options until, pressed for a decision, he chose to ride Adriano, whose connections waffled between the Derby and something else on grass until last week, when the colt, who has not raced since the Lane's End in March, handled the ground at Churchill in a workout to the satisfaction of trainer Graham Motion, a trainer not known for susceptibility to Derby fever. Prado and agent Bob Frieze make few mistakes. This says something about Adriano not evident in the past-performance lines.

Dutrow, sequestered with Big Brown in Florida, says he is confident that the colt's hoof problems are a thing of the past. Perhaps. There is no shortage of Big Brown fans willing to make the leap of faith necessary to back a horse going into the Derby after having raced only three times. Some -- many -- believe that they have sufficient evidence to conclude that Big Brown is the next true superstar. Speaking on their behalf, Dutrow said: "You're looking at something here where talent will make up for [lack of] experience."

Or, not.